Iran 2024 !
As of December 24, 2024, Iran's military landscape is characterized by both advancements and significant challenges:
Military Capabilities:
Personnel and Ranking: Iran maintains one of the largest military forces in the Middle East, with approximately 610,000 active-duty personnel and an additional 350,000 reserve personnel, totaling around 960,000. In 2024, Global Firepower ranked Iran 14th out of 145 countries in military strength.
Missile Arsenal: Iran possesses a substantial and diverse missile inventory, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Notably, the development of the Arman long-range anti-ballistic missile system, unveiled in February 2024, enhances its air defense capabilities.
Defense Budget: In 2024, Iran announced plans to increase its military budget by 200%, signaling a commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities.
Recent Developments:
Regional Influence: Throughout 2024, Iran's regional alliances have weakened significantly. The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, targeted Israeli strikes on Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, and setbacks in Gaza and Yemen have collectively diminished Iran's influence in the Middle East.
Military Engagements: In October 2024, Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles toward Israel following Israeli offensives in Lebanon. While this demonstrated Iran's missile capabilities, many of the missiles were intercepted by Israel's advanced defense systems, highlighting limitations in Iran's offensive effectiveness.
Supply Chain Challenges: The fall of the Assad regime has disrupted Iran's overland arms supply routes to proxy forces like Hezbollah. Iran is now considering alternative methods, such as airborne supply routes, to continue supporting its regional allies.
Strategic Considerations:
Nuclear Ambitions: The Biden administration has expressed concerns that, weakened by regional setbacks and Israeli strikes, Iran might consider developing a nuclear weapon. Despite Iran's claims of a peaceful nuclear program, its expanded uranium enrichment activities have raised international apprehensions.
Planned Operations: Iran has announced plans for "Operation True Promise III," a military response to Israeli strikes that resulted in Iranian casualties. This operation is expected to occur between the U.S. presidential election and the inauguration in January 2025, indicating Iran's intent to assert its military presence despite recent challenges.
In summary, while Iran continues to invest in and develop its military capabilities, it faces significant strategic and operational challenges due to regional dynamics, international pressures, and internal constraints.